The "housing market" is not everybody shopping in the same store

VALLEJO, Calif. - Rezul -- We keep hearing about "the housing market" as if everybody is shopping in the same store. They're not. Right now, America appears to have two housing markets operating at the same time.

In one, buyers are calculating mortgage payments down to the last nickel, worrying about insurance, taxes, closing costs and whether ordering guacamole this month will affect their debt-to-income ratio.

In the other? People are still buying million-dollar homes. First-time buyers made up just 21% of buyers in its latest generational report—the lowest share since NAR began tracking the number in 1981.

Meanwhile, higher-end real estate continues to show surprising resilience. The national threshold for luxury housing at approximately $1.2 million in September, down 3.6% from a year earlier. So luxury prices softened and luxury buyers ignored the memo.

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"The biggest divide in housing right now may not be geography," says Vallejo Realtor Bruno Versaci of Excel Realty & Mortgage. "It's money. A buyer putting 5% or 10% down at today's mortgage rates is playing an entirely different game than somebody putting 50% down—or writing a check."

Mortgage rates make that difference painfully obvious. With 30-year mortgage rates hovering around 7%, even relatively small changes in borrowing costs can add hundreds of dollars to a buyer's monthly payment. For first-time and middle-income buyers already stretching the budget, that can mean buying less house, negotiating harder—or saying, "Forget it, we'll renew the lease."

Higher-income buyers often have options. Bigger down payments. Smaller mortgages. Investment income. Cash. In other words, they may notice the interest rate. They just don't need to lie awake staring at the ceiling because of it. That creates two completely different real estate conversations.

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At $400,000 or $500,000, buyers may be asking for closing-cost credits, repairs, seller-paid rate buydowns and a lower price. At $2 million, the conversation may simply be: Is this house actually worth $2 million? And frankly, that's why broad national housing headlines are becoming less useful.

Real estate has always been local. Now it's becoming increasingly financially segmented too. So instead of asking: "What is the housing market doing?" Maybe the better question is: "Which housing market are we talking about?" Because right now, the answer depends heavily on who's holding the checkbook.

About Bruno Versaci

Bruno is a Bay Area helping buyers and sellers throughout the East Bay make smarter real estate decisions. His practical approach, straightforward advice and occasional dry humor have earned him the nickname, "The No BS Realtor." Check out his crazy videos on YouTube by clicking here: https://rb.gy/u4gy9k