Redistricting - Proportional Representation is a Math Myth

WASHINGTON - Rezul -- Some complaib that in some states their representation in the U.S. House is far below the percentage of their voters, and that this is compelling evidence of invidious gerrymandering by the other party.

But both arguments are based on a false and misleading premise says Professor John Banzhaf.

The professor's "Banzhaf Index of Voting Power" revolutionized the measurement of voting power, proved that weighted voting was unconstitutional, and showed that voters in the most populous states which have the most voting power under the Electoral College.
*The Banzhaf Index of Voting Power <http://banzhaf.net/about/BanzhafIndexofVotingPo...; (http://banzhaf.net/about/BanzhafIndexofVotingPo...)*

Elementary mathematics establishes conclusively that the number of representatives elected, from equally populous and non-gerrymandered congressional districts, would not be proportional to the percentage of Republicans and Democrats (or African Americans) in any individual state if populations were uniformly distributed, notes Banzhaf.

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Consider a hypothetical state with a population of 10 million divided into 10 districts, each with a population of 1 million voters.

Even if 45% of the voters in the state were from Party X, and the 55% majority of voters were from Party Y, each of the 10 districts - assuming a uniform distribution of voters throughout the state - would elect a Party Y candidate since each district would have roughly 550,000 Party Y voters and 450,000 Party voters.

It is a simple and well recognized fact that Republican and Democratic voters, as well as voters who are Black and White, are not uniformly distributed in any state; e.g. with some concentrated in urban areas and others concentrated in rural areas.

This means that the majority of states do elect members of the House from both parties, and that the percentage of each party in the state's delegation do not necessarily approximate the percentage of each party's voters in that state.

The inability of either of the two major parties to elect a percentage of representatives at least roughly proportional to the percentage of the party's voters in any individual state is further complicated - and in part explained - by the fact that almost half of all voters *reportedly <https://news.gallup.com/poll/700499/new-high-id...; (https://news.gallup.com/poll/700499/new-high-identify-political-independents.aspx)* are registered as independents.

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It is also true that many people will vote across party lines from time to time depending on a variety of factors (e.g. mid-term elections, the economy, war or hostilities, etc.).

So while arguments against gerrymandering, should not be based upon a false mathematical myth of expected proportionally political representation in the House, it is certainly possible to use math to identify and even quantify unfair districting (i.e. gerrymandering).

http://banzhaf.net  jbanzhafATgmail.com  @profbanzhaf