Discovery Energy Outlook Finds U.S. LNG Exports Are Tying American Natural Gas Costs to Global Markets

SOUTH JORDAN, Utah - Rezul -- Discovery Energy Utility Audits, an independent utility bill audit and Utility Cost Intelligence firm serving multi-site commercial and industrial organizations across the United States and Canada, today announced the publication of The U.S. LNG Export Boom: What Drove It, What It Built and What It Means for Gas Prices Through 2031, a comprehensive outlook on the forces now linking domestic natural gas prices to world energy markets.

The report finds that U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports reached a record 15.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025 and are forecast at 17.6 Bcf/d in 2026. At those levels, roughly one cubic foot in six produced in the United States leaves the country as LNG. Projects already sanctioned would nearly double U.S. export capacity, from about 122 million tonnes per year (mtpa) today to about 237 mtpa by 2031 if every one finishes on schedule.

Written by Sam Strong, Vice President of Business Development, and reviewed by Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer, the outlook explains what these shifts mean for the price American companies pay for energy, and why buyers should plan for greater volatility from 2027 onward.

"For most of the past decade, Henry Hub was a domestic price driven by a domestic story," said Strong. "That is changing. When a sixth of U.S. production is loaded onto tankers, a strike on a Qatari plant or a cold week in Europe can show up on a manufacturer's gas bill in Ohio or Texas. Our job is to show buyers that connection before it shows up in their budget."

Key findings

The outlook draws on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), company filings and market reporting. Its principal findings include:

• The United States is the world's largest LNG exporter, and still growing. Exports climbed from 0.5 Bcf/d in 2016 to 15.1 Bcf/d in 2025, 26% of world LNG trade. First-half 2026 exports averaged 17.4 Bcf/d, up 23% year on year, and EIA expects 18.6 Bcf/d in 2027.
• Geopolitics set the direction. Europe's turn away from Russian gas after 2022, an EU regulation banning Russian LNG under long-term contracts from January 1, 2027, China's tariff-driven exit from direct U.S. purchases, and the 2026 Iran war, which closed the Strait of Hormuz to most Gulf LNG and damaged about 17% of Qatar's export capacity, have all pulled U.S. cargoes abroad.
• The price gap pays for the plants. On October 13, 2026, Henry Hub traded at $3.12 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) against $28.20 at Europe's TTF and $26.09 at Asia's JKM benchmark. Flexible U.S. contracts tied to Henry Hub turn that spread into exports.
• LNG is now one of the largest uses of U.S. natural gas. Export feedgas averaged 16.0 Bcf/d in 2025 and set a record of 18.8 Bcf/d in April 2026, behind only power generation and industry and ahead of all residential use.
• A record build-out arrives from 2027. About 42 mtpa of new capacity is scheduled to start in 2027 alone, the largest one-year addition in U.S. history, led by Port Arthur, Rio Grande, Golden Pass and CP2.
• Long-term price forecasts diverge sharply. Record U.S. production has kept 2026 Henry Hub prices near $3.50. Futures and several forecasters see $3.25–3.70 for later years, while EIA's Annual Energy Outlook sees $5–6 in the early 2030s. Buyers should plan for both paths.
• Henry Hub will grow more sensitive to events abroad. Full U.S. plants currently cap how much of a foreign price spike reaches domestic prices. That cap loosens with every new train, and by 2030 a fifth or more of U.S. production could be tied to world LNG markets.

From global markets to the facility gas bill

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The outlook is part of Discovery Energy's broader research program, which tracks the macroeconomic and infrastructure forces that set what American companies pay for electricity and natural gas. The firm's analysis separates a commercial gas bill into three parts that move for different reasons: the commodity price, regional basis, and local delivery.

• Commodity. National supply and demand, now including LNG exports, move Henry Hub. When an explosion took about 2 Bcf/d of export demand offline at Freeport LNG in June 2022, Henry Hub fell $1.27 per MMBtu the next day.
• Regional basis. Pipeline capacity decides what each region actually pays. On October 13, 2026, next-day gas cost $3.10 at Henry Hub but $1.89 at the Permian's Waha hub, while New England's Algonquin hub averaged $6.08 across 2025 against $3.52 at Henry Hub.
• Delivery. A utility's pipeline capacity, winter design-day position and rate design shape the delivery charges on every invoice, along with purchased gas adjustments, balancing and capacity charges.

Discovery Energy publishes research across each of these layers:

• Market outlooks and case studies, such as the U.S. LNG outlook, which explain the geopolitical, policy and price drivers behind national energy costs.
• Natural gas capacity outlooks that rate delivery systems in 48 U.S. metros, utility by utility, built from utility and regulatory filings.
• The Data Center Index, which rates every 100 MW-plus data center campus in the U.S. and Canada for its pull on the power grid and natural gas. Analysts cited in the outlook expect data centers to add between 4.1 and 6.1 Bcf/d of gas demand by 2030, competing with LNG for the same molecules, pipelines and construction crews.
• The monthly Energy Risk Report, which covers weather, natural gas and the ERCOT, PJM, MISO, NYISO and ISO-NE power markets, with buy-or-wait guidance on three-year forward contracts.

That research feeds directly into the firm's client work: utility bill audits that test whether each account was billed correctly, and energy procurement programs that time competitive natural gas and electricity RFPs to market conditions.

"A national price is only the starting point," said Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer of Discovery Energy. "What a site actually pays depends on regional basis, the local utility's capacity and whether the account is set up on the right service and rate. We track the global forces and we audit the bills, because a company needs both to control what it pays for energy."

What commercial and industrial buyers should plan for

The outlook closes with practical guidance for companies that buy natural gas across multiple sites:

1.     Treat Henry Hub as partly a global price. Events in the Gulf, Europe and Asia will increasingly reach U.S. commodity costs as each new export train comes online.

2.     Separate the three parts of the bill. Commodity, regional basis and delivery move for different reasons, and basis can swing more than Henry Hub itself.

3.     Budget for volatility, not averages. Winter Storm Fern drove Henry Hub spot gas to an all-time daily high of $30.72 per MMBtu on January 23, 2026. In October, futures priced January 2027 at $3.76 and April 2027 at $2.56, so layering purchases across seasons is usually cheaper than a single bet on timing.

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4.     Look past 2027. With futures near $3.65–3.70 for 2028–2030 and EIA's long-term outlook at $5–6 in the early 2030s, some longer-term coverage is a reasonable hedge against the higher path.

5.     Check how the utility passes gas costs through. Purchased gas adjustments, balancing and capacity charges, and the choice between sales and transportation service all decide how wholesale moves reach the invoice. In one Discovery Energy engagement, 13 sites not set up correctly for transport gas were costing a renewable natural gas producer more than $50,000 a month.

6.     Watch the milestones. Key dates include Gulf peace talks and Qatar's restart, the EU's January 1, 2027 ban on Russian LNG under long-term contracts, and the 2027 start-ups at Port Arthur, Rio Grande and CP2.

Key figures for editors

Measure	Value	Source
U.S. LNG exports, 2025 (record)	15.1 Bcf/d, 26% of world LNG trade	EIA
U.S. LNG exports, January–June 2026	17.4 Bcf/d, up 23% year on year	EIA
Forecast exports, 2026 and 2027	17.6 and 18.6 Bcf/d	EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026
Export capacity in service, October 2026	About 122 mtpa (about 16.5 Bcf/d)	EIA liquefaction data
Capacity if all sanctioned projects finish	About 237 mtpa by 2031	EIA, IEA; Discovery Energy tally
Henry Hub vs. TTF vs. JKM, October 13, 2026	$3.12 vs. $28.20 vs. $26.09 per MMBtu	Reuters, LSEG
LNG export feedgas, 2025 average and April 2026 record	16.0 and 18.8 Bcf/d	LSEG via Reuters
Henry Hub forecast, 2026 and 2027	$3.48 and $3.16 per MMBtu	EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026

Forecasts cited in the outlook are third-party views, not Discovery Energy price predictions. Full sourcing is available in the published report.

Availability

The full outlook, including charts, a terminal-by-terminal capacity table, a 2016–2031 timeline, three market scenarios and a complete source list, is available free at deaudits.com/blog/us-lng-exports-outlook. Companies that want to understand how these market forces affect their own sites can request a bill review at deaudits.com/contact.

About Discovery Energy

Discovery Energy Utility Audits (deaudits.com) is an independent, contingency-based utility bill audit and Utility Cost Intelligence firm for multi-site commercial and industrial organizations across the US and Canada, founded in 2000 in South Jordan, Utah. The firm audits electricity and natural gas bills and tariffs, manages energy procurement in regulated and deregulated markets, provides aggregate utility bill pay and TaraBase reporting, and publishes a monthly Energy Risk Report. Audits carry no upfront fee; Discovery Energy is paid a share of refunds and verified savings. Discovery Energy is a member of the Association of Energy Engineers (AEE).