X·Y Worldwide Launches X·Y Foresight, Offering a Clearer Lens on Global Fertility Trends

AUSTIN, Texas - Rezul -- X·Y Worldwide today launched X·Y Foresight, a new public-interest division providing open-access demographic intelligence to help nations understand the causes of fertility decline. The platform is available at www.xyworldwide.org

The initiative builds on recent research by X·Y Worldwide co-founder Stephen J. Shaw. His 2025 Nature Portfolio paper, Foundations of Microdemography, introduced the Microdemographic Framework (MDF), which shows that the traditional Total Fertility Rate (TFR) explains only about half of the variation in completed fertility. By compressing complex dynamics into a single "average woman," TFR fails to reveal whether fertility decline is driven by fewer women becoming mothers, smaller families, or shifts in timing.

X·Y Foresight translates the MDF into a global dashboard offering clearer measures, including:

• Total Maternal Rate (TMR): proportion of women who become mothers
• Total Childlessness Rate (TCR): proportion who remain childless
• Children per Mother (CPM): average family size among mothers
• Average Maternal Age (AMA): timing of first motherhood

These metrics provide precision and timeliness unavailable in conventional indicators.

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"Traditional measures hide what is really happening," Shaw said. "By making these new indicators public, we give policymakers, journalists, and citizens a clearer picture of demographic change."

The platform launches with insights for more than 40 countries, including the latest national data, modeled projections, and public-facing analytical briefs.

"Understanding demographic change requires clarity and compassion," said co-founder Katalin Novák, former President of Hungary. "X·Y Foresight brings both to a global issue affecting every community."

ABOUT X·Y WORLDWIDE
X·Y Worldwide is a U.S. 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization advancing public understanding of global fertility patterns and demographic change. It is strictly non-political, non-religious, and non-ideological.

ABOUT X·Y FORESIGHT
X·Y Foresight is the analytical division of X·Y Worldwide, dedicated to publishing clear, data-driven insights grounded in the Microdemographic Framework.