New Study Explores Link Between Gas Prices, Crashes in Colorado, and Traffic Fatalities

DENVER - Rezul -- CrashStory has released two new data investigations on how gasoline prices relate to road safety in Colorado and across the United States.

The Colorado study tests monthly statewide crash counts against Energy Information Administration (EIA) Colorado gasoline prices from January 2023 through January 2026. After adjusting for month of year and a linear time trend, a 10‑cent higher gas price one month earlier is associated with about 176 fewer police‑reported crashes and 63 fewer reported injuries in the following month, compared with an average month of 10,097 crashes and 3,153 injuries. Same‑month models also point negative, with an estimated 132 fewer crashes and 54 fewer injuries per 10‑cent increase. A lagged model for fatalities points to about 2.4 fewer deaths per 10‑cent increase, but that estimate is treated as more fragile because fatalities are rarer and the build is not exposure‑adjusted.​

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Year‑over‑year comparisons for Colorado show that months with larger gas‑price increases tend to see larger declines in crash counts. In this view, the correlation between gas‑price changes and crash‑count changes is ‑0.54, consistent with the idea that higher prices are associated with lower overall crash volume, likely through reduced driving exposure rather than a change in per‑mile risk. CrashStory notes that these are associations based on counts, not proof of causation or per‑mile safety effects.​

A companion national study examines whether higher gas prices are linked to changes in fatality rates once exposure is taken into account. That analysis combines Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) deaths, Federal Highway Administration vehicle‑miles‑traveled (VMT) data, and EIA state gasoline prices for all 50 states and the District of Columbia from 2013 through 2023. Across several model specifications with state fixed effects, trends, and exposure via VMT, higher gasoline prices are generally associated with slightly lower fatality rates per 100 million miles driven, but the effects are small, statistically weak, and sensitive to model choice.

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Both analyses use EIA gasoline price series, CrashStory's compiled Colorado crash counts, and FARS and FHWA data for the national work. Full methods, charts, and downloadable data are available at:

• Colorado analysis: https://crashstory.com/research/gas-prices-vs-car-accidents​
• National analysis: https://crashstory.com/research/national-gas-prices-vs-traffic-fatalities​

About CrashStory
CrashStory is a crash‑intelligence platform that compiles statewide crash records and related public data into maps, statistics, and research tools for those injured in car accidents and personal injury lawyers who help them.